Believe it or not, this is not the most outlandish
next generation console mock-up out there.
After a very prolonged hardware generation, I'm very excited at what I would say is a 99.9% likelihood of new console announcements at next year's E3 trade show. Below are my predictions for what is to follow from Sony and Microsoft. I'm going to stay away from specifics in terms of specs, since from what I've read there are set to be a lot of similarities this time around, and focus on features.
Microsoft - Working title 'Durango'
It will be out sooner rather than later
The new console will be announced and released worldwide in all major territories in 2013. Microsoft are not afraid to rush something to market to get a head start on their competitors, and they've had a lot longer than normal to prepare a new hardware offering this time around.
'Xbox 720'?
It will not be called 'Xbox 720', because that sounds ridiculous. Recent rumors suggest that Microsoft may simply call it 'Xbox', other suggestions including either Xbox Loop or something along the lines of Xbox 8 or Xbox Metro in reference to Microsoft's recently released Windows 8 OS.
Multiple SKUs
The system will have multiple SKUs. Rumours suggest Microsoft are prepping both a full fat version and a 'Kinect-themed gaming portal' set top box as a cheaper option aimed at families and casual gamers. Microsoft has spent a great deal of time, effort and money attempting to wrestle the attention of the casual crowd away from Nintendo, I don't see them giving up on that any time soon.
Kinect 2.0
A new version of Kinect to continue the aforementioned assault on the Wii's casual gaming dominance. I expect it to remain an anathema to most hardcore gamers, however.Optical or Digital?
It will use an optical drive, but will not support Blu-Ray. Home broadband connections in many parts of the world (including here in the UK, sadly) are simply not ready to meet the demands of a download only next generation console, and I think Microsoft will be very aware of this and choose not go for a digital only distribution model this time around as some have suggested they might. DVD will not be a viable format for use in the next Xbox due to size limitations of the discs, but at the same time I very much doubt Microsoft will go cap in hand to Sony and license Blu-Ray technology. My prediction is that Microsoft will create a new high-density disc storage format similar to Nintendo's solution to the same predicament they found themselves in with the Wii U. Day one releases for all full retail titles on Xbox Live is also very likely, and a built in hard drive on the more expensive model is an absolute certainty.
DRM
...and lots of it. Developers, publishers and console manufacturers hate the second hand games trade and I believe will attempt to eradicate it by including one use serial codes that tie rights to a specific game to your Xbox Live account. Try and put a second hand disc into the console and access it with an account without the rights to use it, and you'll be politely put in your place. Its been suggested that Microsoft would be reluctant to take such an approach for fear of alienating retailers on whom they would still be reliant to pedal hardware. It's worth pointing out, though, that bricks and mortar games stores are dropping like flies, and we're fast approaching a point of entropy whereby there's nobody on the high street left to appease.
Since 2009 we've seen a yearly Halo game, but so far nothing has been announced for 2013. There have been rumors of a Halo 2 remake in the works over the past couple of months, but if it is to be released in 2013, you'd think it would be best utilized as a killer app for Microsoft's newly released next generation Xbox rather than as a swansong for the aging Xbox 360. Getting multiple third parties on board to churn out a next generation Halo 2 remake (as was the case with Halo: Anniversary) for the new Xbox in 2013 would allow 343 Industries two years to work on Halo 5 for a fall 2014 release, again, on the new hardware. Its worth bearing in mind that two years is the usual turnaround time on Call of Duty sub-series sequels, so its not an unreasonable supposition that Microsoft may expect a similarly aggressive release schedule from 343 Industries with regards to the Halo series.
Out with the old, in with the new
Microsoft will cut off the Xbox 360 like a diseased limb in the wake of a new hardware release, just as they did with the original Xbox. Backwards compatibility with Live Arcade games I would take as an absolute certainty, full retail games a 50/50 chance. In the event of backwards compatibility for full retail games being the case, going back to the above point regarding Halo for a second, there's an outside chance that Microsoft may release the Halo 2 remake, if it exists, on the Xbox 360 but in doing so make damn sure the box makes it abundantly clear that the game will work on the newly released console by adding a visual aid of some sort to the usual Xbox 360 box format.
It will not be cheap at launch
Console manufacturers want you to think they price their products aggressively but I don't think they do, especially not at launch. Expect to not have much change out of £300 for the full console, and a price range of £200-250 for the budget SKU, should it materialize. Gamers have proven themselves happy to pay such prices in the past, so there's no reason for Microsoft to charge any less.
Sony - Working title 'Orbis'.
It will be out sooner rather than later - or later rather than sooner.
Possibly multiple SKUs, possibly not
Rumors suggest that the latest Playstation Orbis development kits have an inbuilt 256GB hard drive. Its true that sometimes development hardware does include extra storage, but if that where the case here you'd be talking a terabyte at least, as was the case with the leaked Durango development kit sold on Ebay recently, not a painfully specific 256GB. However, this does seem like a reasonable amount of storage for a consumer next generation console to have, in that its not exactly an abundance but would probably be plenty enough for most. This begs the question; if a 256GB console occupies the mid-range in terms of storage, would there be a market for anything much larger or smaller?
Sony got beaten to the punch this console generation, and spent a lot of time playing catch up while first and third party support gained momentum. On one hand they could go for a 2013 release to prevent this happening again, on other, could attempt to build up anticipation for 12 months riding the PR line that their products aren't always the first to market or the cheapest, but they always deliver quality - their words (or a paraphrasing of them), not mine. After all, they have spoken in the past of seeing the Playstation 3 as having a ten year life cycle, and at the moment its only just passed the six year mark over here in the UK.
It will be called 'Playstation Orbis'
In the most recent conference on the subject of next generation Playstation hardware, Sony did not refer to their upcoming console as Playstation 4 once, only 'Orbis', a working title for the project that leaked a little while ago. Interestingly, Orbis Vita (the latter being the name of the PSP's successor) is latin for 'the circle of life'.
Rumors suggest that the latest Playstation Orbis development kits have an inbuilt 256GB hard drive. Its true that sometimes development hardware does include extra storage, but if that where the case here you'd be talking a terabyte at least, as was the case with the leaked Durango development kit sold on Ebay recently, not a painfully specific 256GB. However, this does seem like a reasonable amount of storage for a consumer next generation console to have, in that its not exactly an abundance but would probably be plenty enough for most. This begs the question; if a 256GB console occupies the mid-range in terms of storage, would there be a market for anything much larger or smaller?
Blu-Ray, again
The next Playstation will have Blu-Ray as standard. It was a big selling point for the Playstation 3, and offers adequate storage space for next generation games.I expect Sony to take a similar approach to what I predict from Microsoft with regards to DRM, and also simultaneous Playstation Store and retail releases for all titles.
Dual Shock, again
The Playstation controller is not going anywhere. Although its ergonomics with regards to first person shooters is a point of contention for some, its iconic shape and button layout is instantly familiar to the Sony faithful and casual gamers alike, having not changed significantly since the mid years of the first Playstation's heyday. There is no reason to rock the boat at this point.
The Playstation controller is not going anywhere. Although its ergonomics with regards to first person shooters is a point of contention for some, its iconic shape and button layout is instantly familiar to the Sony faithful and casual gamers alike, having not changed significantly since the mid years of the first Playstation's heyday. There is no reason to rock the boat at this point.
No backwards compatibility
The Playstation 3 was notoriously difficult to develop for and while exclusives often looked incredible, multiplatform releases looked inferior on Playstation 3 almost without exception because they where often made on the far more developer friendly Xbox 360 and then ported over. Sony is rumoured to be committed to building the Orbis from 'off the shelf' components to prevent this being the case next generation. Given the complicated nature of Playstation 3's internal components, I would imagine this U-turn on hardware simplicity is the death knell for any kind of in built backwards compatibility. All is not lost however...
Gaikai
Sony's recent surprise acquisition of cloud gaming company Gaikai has been the source of much online speculation. The most credible theory is that Sony will be looking to provide streaming access to its extensive library of Playstation 1, 2 and possibly 3 games via the Playstation Network next generation. Whether this takes the form of a subscription or individual transactions remains to be seen.
The continued rise of Playstation Plus
Its fair to say that despite initial skepticism, Sony's Playstation Plus service has met with considerable success. Indeed, everybody I know who's tried the service considers it incredible value for money. I expect Sony to continue pushing the Playstation Plus when their next generation hardware lands, and both the selection and caliber of games to continue to improve. I can't see them introducing an Xbox Live style mandatory subscription for online play, however.
It won't be cheap, either.
As mentioned previously, Sony consider themselves to be something akin to the Rolls Royce of consumer electronics and aren't afraid to price their products accordingly. I'm expecting a single SKU from Sony that will be more expensive than Microsoft's offering (or offerings). I don't think Sony will price any future console as highly as the Playstation 3 at launch (which was an eye-watering £425), but I could certainly see it being north of £300 over here.
We'll take a look back at my predictions when Microsoft and Sony make their announcements and see how right, or wrong, I was.
We'll take a look back at my predictions when Microsoft and Sony make their announcements and see how right, or wrong, I was.
No comments:
Post a Comment